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[ Suggestions ] SS Convoy adjustment

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  • Registered: 2017-07-24
  • Topics: 29
  • Posts: 2271
On 2017-09-09 04:30:43Show All Posts
15#

Fact of the matter is that single day performance is meaningless. While there is risk, like in all things, the long term result would be stable.

And if a player is intelligent, they would make the choice of plunder vs convoy based on the long term average.

Fact of the matter is, if the average *s for a certain player, they would probably switch to convoy.


So as it stands, anyone who STILL plunders probably does have a significant higher income than those who convoy. At the same time, the stronger a player is, relative to their server, the bigger the gains. And in every server, there would be a few who gets vastly more than others.

This is the state of equilibrium. Not all those who can plunder does, only those who can get extra reward do.


The thing is, there are two factors that affect where the equilibrium lies, strength and number.

The strength is related to how stronger the plunderer is compared to the target. Those who are weak and rarely win would give up and convoy instead.

The number relates to plunder opportunity, that is to say the number of plunder vs conveyor. As prospects diminish, plunderer give up waiting for them and thus shift to convoy.


I believe the strength factor is what the game intended, as the mods have stated before that the feature meant to reward the strong. On the other hand, the number factor is a result of the imbalance between plunder and convoy.

Fact of the matter is, maximal plunder reward is more than 4 times that of convoy. This means that you would be profitable if you win just 25% of your fights if you can get all 3 chances. At the same time, even if you only gets to plunder 50% of your max chance (1.5 per day on average, so 1 or 2 per day in practice), you still only need to win only half your attempts. That makes plunder pay off relatively safe and easy.


Shifting reward would help shift the equilibrium state toward one that is based more on power. If the reward is 2:1, for example, then if you are not getting maximal attempts, then you have to win a much larger portion of your fight, a difficult thing for many. So people might quit plundering and switch to convoy until a new equilibrium that is based more on power is reached.


Of course, this won't work so well in practice as it does in theory. For one, some people are greedy and/or overly optimistic, so they might try to plunder even thou their return might be bad, affecting the overall plunder:convoy ratio. At the same time, moving from plunder to convoy is like a game of chicken. Even if, for example, at average of 2 plunder per day and 66% win rate it is no longer profitable, if you hold out and the other 2/day 67% player quits first due to lack of profit, you might start getting 2.2 plunder a day and it might become profitable at the same win rate and so on. So as it were, there is a chance that those that remains aren't the strongest, just those who held out the longest, forcing other out with the worse plunder:convoy ratio. And if many player tries this, then the ratio might not budge and everyone suffers. But that's enough game theory, the fact of the matter is, even if there is adjustment, things might not end up for the better anyway.

  • Registered: 2017-07-24
  • Topics: 29
  • Posts: 2271
On 2017-09-10 16:47:37Show All Posts
18#

Quite frankly, 10 is too many for most servers, as that would require 30 active player who do convoy for a total of 40 active player who participate in the event, something most servers don't meet. I'd say probably only servers that opened in the first month or so have that many.

At the same time, 20 might be too few for S1/S2. No fixed number is a good number. Ideally, it should self adjust to some number below the maximal, which is sort of how it works now, but the adjustment result is less than ideal due to excessive reward gap.





This post was last edited by PraiseLuka on 2017-09-10 16:47:56.
  • Registered: 2017-07-24
  • Topics: 29
  • Posts: 2271
On 2017-11-14 03:55:32Show All Posts
21#
  • NotSoFairplay On 2017-11-13 21:58:06
  • plunder always been unfair. been talked about for the last 2-3years. they simple dont care or want to improve it. solve it.. plunder can only plunder 1 SS convoy. or convoy can do 3 SS. but realy.. convoy/plunder should just outright be delete and give everyone 150cp a day XD

The game is not out for 2 years.

The current convoy/plunder system, which came with 2.0 is less than a year old.

And even if you consider the CN version, fact of the matter is that the current system only existed between 2.0 and 4.0, which is less than 2 years.

So you are wrong no matter how it's interpreted.


While i agree it's problem, you need to fact check before you talk. Otherwise every argument might get dismissed alongside yours. You are NOT helping.

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